"Wars contain elements of the irrational: pride, fear, ego, confidence, humiliation, and other emotions that elude our attempts at calculation. And Taiwan sitting neatly between the two offers that opportunity. And that is where any fight to resolve Taiwan's fate will be resolved. It would be relatively easy for China to establish a credible air and sea exclusion zone around Taiwan, and thereby put immense pressure on the Taiwanese to accept Beijings terms. Nor can a military modelled in its image. And Australia could be fighting for its survival. Even with robotic flying tanker support, these enormous ships must operate dangerously close to an enemy before their F-18 Super Hornets and F-35B&C Lightnings are of any use. Professor Clinton Fernandesis a former intelligence officer in the Australian military and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. They have different opinions on a range of issues, but one thing that is striking about the four is what they agree on. "It may be argued that ANZUS would inevitably push Australia to war but we should not be lazy in coming [to] that conclusion. "A cross-strait Invasion would involve a shaping phase to achieve air, land, sea, and cyber superiority. The structure of the military is also different. "The consequences for us would be very serious in terms of the Australian economy, the impact on the Australian people and the ravages to our way of life throughout the land, he says. "The mobilisation for all this would take many months and US intelligence would detect it and know in advance what was being planned. Guam is 1,300 nautical miles and Honolulu (Pearl Harbor) is over 4,200 nautical miles from Taiwan. Possibly completely different. In a rare joint statement, the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council said it was their primary . But China is a different kind of foe a military, economic and technological power capable of making a war felt in the American homeland. It depends how it starts. China produces more ships, steel and smartphones than any other country and is a world leader in the production of chemicals, metals, heavy industrial equipment and electronics the basic building blocks of a military-industrial economy. And hes repeatedly expressed his willingness to go to war to remove it. The attrition model appears to be deeply ingrained in the US approach to land warfare. And, in some areas, China may even be ahead. "Practically this limits the sinews of war available to us: they would be insufficient. China is now the dominant global industrial power by many measures. These operations would most likely be accompanied by cyber offensives to disrupt electricity, gas, water, transport, health care and other public services. Imaginary targets could quickly be replaced by real ones. AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), abc.net.au/news/china-us-war-what-would-conflict-look-like-taiwan/101998772, Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article. I am sure that survivors of war may have a more considered view. At least initially, the bulk of any such conflict would be at sea. Despite its 1.9 million-strong army, compared to Taiwans cohort of 150,000, the task of taking its island neighbour and holding it is a mammoth military challenge. We cannot lose a single inch of the lands we inherited from our ancestors, the Chinese Defense Ministrys Information Bureau recently proclaimed, and we would not take a single cent of others possessions., RELATED: Drums of war: Ominous China warning. It runs between the Japanese islands of Mikako and Okinawa. Some 64 percent of Australians viewed a potential military conflict between the U.S. and China as a "critical threat" to Australia's national interests, behind Russia's foreign policy (68 percent . For the US, the bigger the coalition of countries joining it in any war, the better. U.S. supplies of many products could soon run low, paralyzing a vast range of businesses. Especially without comprehensive and numerous missile defence systems. The head of Russian mercenary group Wagner says his forces have practically encircled the crucial city of Bakhmut. The war has exposed divisions within the G20 that go beyond Russia and China. "Major combat against the United States means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. "Ultimately, I do not see how America could inflict enough damage on China to force Beijing to concede over Taiwan, without using nuclear weapons. Here are some tips. And that is where any fight to resolve Taiwans fate will be resolved. "China's leaders could discreetly offer negotiations to Taiwan's leaders during a blockade before the risky step of ordering an amphibious invasion," Professor Fernandes says. "As I see the decision for the invasion of Iraq I think it was made by the Prime Minister. "Chinas air defences are likely to prove formidable, but so are US and allied air capabilities. Do they think an all-volunteer defence force can do the job? It has just about every contingency covered. But which one would have military superiority in outright conflict? To walk countries away from war we have concluded that statesmanship finds more purchase on risk aversion than on hawkishness. of Strategic Forum in Canberra, Australia. "This is the critical question. The size of the military mobilisation required to achieve this wouldinvolve calling up the reserves and activating the society at large, not just the military,well in advance of an invasion. But the definition of ancestral territory appears to be changing rapidly. . Korea was an unnecessary war, as were the conflicts in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. But China has more at stake, because in the long run Taiwan matters a lot moreto China than to America. For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan and other US allies and partners simultaneously.". The war in Ukraine reminds us of how uncertain these things canbe for both sides. He says that unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into the conflict and their families, a war with China would have an impact on all Australians "economically, financially and personally it is likely to impoverish us all; it may even kill most of us if it goes nuclear". If not, what steps have been taken to change our posture? A major war in the Indo-Pacific is probably more likely now than at any other time since World War II. Our biggest customer is now also viewed as our biggest threat andChina's muscle-flexing around Taiwan last week only strengthened the view that a war involving Taiwan is a genuine possibility. Its a problem long recognised by defence analysts and planners. Are bills set to rise? Despite this, U.S. military planners would prefer to fight a conventional war. Don't Do It: An All-Out War With China Could End Humanity It is a bad idea to get into a shooting war with a fellow nuclear power. Wed like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. And that would leave Australias critical fuel supply links to Singapore desperately exposed. One real threat mistaken for a bluff. 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"Australia's real utility is as a strategic asset, giving both legitimacy and credibility to the US decision to employ its very formidable military force, and at the same time providing the US with a secure rear that could guarantee logistic and operational support. It now overlaps the ancestral territory of Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Borneo and India. The Chinese defence budget reached $324 billion this year. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. It isn't Ukraine. If Australians are hearing the 'beating drums' of war, as Minister Mike Pezzullo put it, is it because Scott Morrison's Coalition government thinks banging on about China will be a winning . "China does have the mass to sustain a war of attrition over a long period as it did, and has continued to do, in Korea and in Vietnam for that matter.". Beyond out-producing the US Navy in the number of warships at a rate of four to one, the PLA Strategic Rocket Force has put US aircraft carriers at risk with the fielding of the DF-21D and DF-26 anti-carrier ballistic missiles, Mr Fanell said. The US must operate from a few exposed facilities such as Okinawa and Guam. The US will pursue the following war aims: 1. "China's IADS makes a blockade the most likely scenario. There are always a few possibilities that the right thing to do is to go to war irrespective of the expectation that we could 'win' whatever that means. "No one can be sure how that war would play out, because there have been no major maritime wars since Japan was defeated in 1945, but by far the most likely outcome would be a costly stalemate in which both sides lost heavily but neither side could secure a decisive, war-wining advantage. While the US remains ahead in space for now, Davis says how long US dominance lasts is not clear. The US is suddenly no longer the world's only military superpower. Building a stronger deterrence by addressing such weaknesses is the best means of averting war. Current Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would presumably discuss the matter with his National Security Cabinet before any decision is made but there are no checks and balances built into the system before the PM makes the biggest decision that a leader can make to send our young men and women to war. "For Australia the conflict would be devastating whether we joined the fighting or not. An embarrassed politician may suddenly feel compelled to enforce a vague red line. What would all the other countries in Asia, such as South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia do? While most members voted in favor of the six U.N. General Assembly resolutions passed since last . Certainly not in the six-to-eight minutes it could take a DF-11 A rocket to cross the 130 kilometre-wide Taiwan Strait to its target. The United States has vital strategic interests at stake. Such concerns must be overcome before any aid can be offered to our allies. Tensions between China and Taiwan have been escalating for years, with Beijing now sending fighter jets and nuclear-capable bombers into Taiwan's air defence zone on a near-daily basis. Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst with ASPI's Defence, Strategy and National Security Program, told Daily Mail Australia it is increasingly likely President Xi Jinping will order Chinese forces. By the time the Peoples Liberation Army launches its third volley of missiles at the island Beijing considers a breakaway province, the US could be just learning of the attack. Vietnam and Iraq were illegal wars, with the US Administration(s) lying to their citizens and their allies about the strategic necessity and the morality of the use of armed force. What would war with China look like for Australia? Allan Behm, who is now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10years, the best one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. China has demonstrated its capabilities already, including in Taiwan, where it has waged disinformation campaigns, and in serious hacking incidents in the United States. Were sorry, this feature is currently unavailable. Such possibilities seem remote at present. "Firepower strikes described above would be accompanied by cyber operations to ensure information is blocked as well. Conflict over the island of Taiwan would be a disastrous experience for the peoples of the region, and its something that we should all work to avoid. John Howard says he has no regrets about the war in Iraq or Australia's involvement in it. "Conventional submarines offer some additional intelligence gathering capability, and the other force elements provide a small additional capacity to the US. This last outpost of pre-Communist China is an embarrassing thorn in Chairman Xi Jinpings paw. I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australia's support, could win a war with China over Taiwan. For a second day in a row Taiwan has reported a large-scale air force incursion, escalating tensions in the region. This is how we got here and what needs to change, 'Please confirm what Muslim refers to': Why Ali's birthday payment for his nephew was flagged by his bank, Kade was a fit 31-year-old when he died from a heart attack, Sherpa are world famous for their work, which is synonymous with their name. Dr. Babbage is the author of the forthcoming book The Next Major War: Can the U.S. and Its Allies Win Against China?. "The irrational elements thus make direct large-scale confrontation between two nuclear powers very dangerous. Rising tensions or unforeseen circumstances that couldlead to war, however, can sometimes overtake those working for peace. There are less quantifiable aspects as well. And Beijings new navy has been in almost a constant string of live fire exercises for the past year. I don't think so! "Even in Australia, with our record of setting up the basics of a rules-based order, governments have sometimes overlooked the provisions of the rules-based order, when it does not suit them. "Specifically, China would probably favour four principal avenues for marginalising or defeating Australia. February 27, 2023 China's foreign minister Qin Gang will attend the G20 foreign ministers' meeting on March 2. China had 55 small war ships in 2020, more than double the number it had five years ago. And, crucially, they would probably not be able to inflict enough damage to decisively defeat the Chinese. The Miyako Strait connects the East China Sea with the Pacific Ocean. 2. But that would require strikes on Chinas mainland, with all the enormous risks of escalation that could portend. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. Our former role in the establishment of the UN is an exemplar of the kind of country we should aspire to be. "Unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into conflict, and their families, a war with China will have an impact on all Australians economically, financially, and personally. "So, how would China prosecute the war? That is massive! In July 2020, BeiDou, Chinas version of GPS became fully operational, allowing it to track ships, planes, cars and smartphones from space without relying on the US technology that has dominated global positioning for decades. Reinforcing Taiwan would likely involve long and bloody battles at sea as underarmed escorts struggle to protect the few but highly vulnerable available transports. And doesnt have the necessary reach. We once had a praiseworthy reputation for the quality of our leadership and our officials. "Australia should take a position where averting war is a serious policy objective. "That's what General Douglas Macarthur found in 1942. "Washington would expect Australia to contribute the full range of our air and naval forces to the maximum extent of our capability, including surface warships, submarines, F-18 and F-35 fighters, P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, airborne early warning aircraft and tanker aircraft.. I am convinced that the challenges facing the United States are serious, and its citizens need to become better aware of them. It can impose costs on our forces. Supply chains of some critical goods and services need to be reconfigured to shift production to the United States or allied nations, and the United States must pursue a longer-term strategic drive to restore its dominance in global manufacturing. "To the extent that China's strategy is informed by Sun Tzu, it would have a strong preference for a short, sharp war. Beijings tactic of area denial already appears to have been effective. One option to attack the man-made islands would be to send in teams of US Marine Raider commandos to destroy weapons systems. "But, in a large-scale war involving many hundreds of thousands of people in offensive and defensive operations, even before reaching the attendant prospect of reaching a nuclear war threshold, Australia is unlikely to make a substantial difference. Of all the uncertainty and conflict in the world at moment, the repercussions of Australia joining the US in any war with China over the status of Taiwan or any other issue issurely one of the most important discussions we must have. No other country on the planet, save New Zealand, is better placed from a purely defensive perspective. Mock attacks will no longer be fake. Chinas grey zone strategy is designed to use fishing fleets to swarm disputed waters in the East and South China Sea, now supported by armed Chinese Coast Guard cutters leveraging their status as non-combatants to get in close and be able to overwhelm US Navy warship sensors and defence perimeters, former navy intelligence director James Fanell told US media. The aim would be to foster confusion, division and distrust and hinder decision making. Chris Zappone and Eryk Bagshaw June 30, 2021 China-US superpower showdown: military strength Matthew Absalom-Wong An accident could trigger a cycle of escalation. The idea sounds grand charging forth, flags flying, to save a bullied island friend. Today, Chinas military spending is the second-highest in the world after the United States and continues to rise. The USs 1.38 million active personnel are better trained and equipped than many of their 1.9 million Chinese peers but getting them in place, and in time, to take on China would be a crucial task.