If we said there was a 70 percent chance a candidate would win a race, did that actually happen 70 percent of the time? The crew discusses the role of the debt ceiling in politics, why it exists in the first place, and the chances of it being abolished altogether. The crew discusses how the Supreme Court may change once Breyer a more moderate Justice among the Liberals retires. They also take a look at whether the Republican Party is conducting a post-mortem after its recent electoral losses. OPEC+ announced its cutting oil production by 2 million barrels a day, President Biden is talking about the threat of nuclear Armageddon and shoes keep dropping in the Georgia Senate race. Galen Druke speaks with George Washington University economist Tara Sinclair about the economics behind Americans pessimistic assessment of the economy. While it appears unlikely that 17 Republicans will join Democrats in voting to convict the former president, the evidence presented could help shape the views of the public regarding what happened at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Saturday, February 25, 2023. Tyler's intense research leads to stimulating and surprising . As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, The Primaries Project. Joining the podcast are Andra Gillespie, political science professor at Emory University, Besheer Mohamed, senior researcher at Pew Research Center, and Stacey Holman, the director of PBSs recent documentary series The Black Church.". fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. This is why we are coming every fortnight on your podcast platforms to help you make sense of the new and now. Galen Druke speaks with political science professors Sunshine Hillygus and Patrick Eagan about the history of wedge issues and how they shape U.S. politics. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Politics Podcast: Could Nikki Haley Actually Win The GOP Nomination? Sign up to get unlimited songs and podcasts with occasional ads. He is now facing a primary from Congressman Jody Hice, whom Trump has endorsed, in his 2022 re-election bid. His new book is called "The Engagement: Americas Quarter-Century Struggle Over Same-Sex Marriage.". The FBI released nationwide crime numbers from 2020 this week that will likely contribute to the already tense political debate over crime and policing. They also discuss ranked choice voting and the reasons for delays in New York City's final vote count in the mayoral election. How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government,American government is designed to have components that are not directly accountable to the public. The crew looks back at what Americans thought about some of the biggest political and cultural issues of 2021. With two new hosts, Anjali and Prateek, the second season of The Big Story will feature longer and well-rounded discussions with experts across science, culture, technology, politics, and more. Nate and Galen discuss the latest twists in the midterms and answer listener questions in this installment of "Model Talk." Politics Podcast: Baby Boomers' Strength Was In Their Numbers. The crew discusses why Sarah Palin may not be a shoe-in for a vacant House seat in Alaska. The crew looks at how some of the most competitive primaries in 2022 are shaping up. Then Nathaniel Rakich and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join to discuss how abortion has played a role in elections this year and when we should know the results of next months midterms. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Americans are spending more and more time alone, and more than a third reported experiencing serious loneliness" in 2021. We also look at the future of inflation with economist Kenneth Rogoff. Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and game-changers every week. They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterms primaries. And lastly, they check-in on the gubernatorial recall efforts in California that are very likely to result in a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom. The crew discusses why the Republican National Committee chose to censure Representatives Cheney and Kinzinger and how different parts of the party view the violent events of January 6th, 2021. Max Fisher, author of the new book, "The Chaos Machine: The Inside Story of How Social Media Rewired Our Minds and Our World," speaks with Galen about the impacts of social media on politics globally and in the U.S. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Instagram did not return a 200. What does it take to make democracy work? Millions of people were without power or heat, and in some cases water, in freezing cold temperatures for days because of severe blackouts. A year later, Trump still appears to be the de facto leader of the party. 266, the . The crew talks about the threat of a government shutdown and debt default, as well as how likely it is that Democrats get their legislative priorities passed. The crew previews Tuesday's primaries in Georgia as well as contests in Arkansas, Alabama, Texas and Minnesota. Galen Druke discusses that question with pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson and writers Ramesh Ponnuru and Henry Olsen, who have all spent their careers in Republican politics and conservative thought. In 2021, cities around the country are choosing mayors to try to lead them through a long list of challenges, both pre-existing and brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Political scientists Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan suggest that focusing only on the Left/Right divide in American politics is reductive. In light of new data showing union membership at its lowest point since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began counting, they also look at how that decline has shaped U.S. politics. Almost a year after the 2020 Democratic National Convention, the crew looks back at the record number of Democrats who ran for president in 2020 and assesses where they are now. . According to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal, Hispanic voters are now split evenly between the Democratic and Republican parties, just one year after 60 percent voted for Democratic House candidates. FiveThirtyEight's Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Tuesday night's primary elections.Website: http:. The board of directors voted Friday to accept the resignation of David Held, effective June 1, and will then offer him the same job on . Today those numbers have flipped. Democratic representative from California Adam Schiff discusses why he thinks American democracy is in trouble, which he lays out in his new book "Midnight In Washington: How We Almost Lost Our Democracy And Still Could.". The crew discusses the politically thorny issue of mental acuity in an increasingly elderly U.S. government, and what Americans think about age limits for public office. Late Wednesday night in a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court chose not to block a Texas law banning most abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy -- making it the most restrictive abortion law in the country. The crew discusses the role partisanship has played in Americans' assessment of risk and their behavior during the pandemic. At the beginning of the millennium, about two-thirds of Americans opposed same-sex marriage, and a third supported it. Preview of Spotify. All you have to do is click the iTunes button below to subscribe to this podcast. Feb. 25, 2021. info. The recall effort ultimately failed by a sizable margin. NEW TOWN . The crew talks about where Americans stand on mitigation efforts, how politicians are responding, and what public health experts are saying about the current state of the pandemic. The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, Then, Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio joins the pod to break down a new poll that asked Latino Americans which party they are favoring in the midterm elections. Tune in on your preferred podcast platform! What does the bench of Democratic leadership look like beyond Biden? Local news is disappearing across the country. The crew discusses why some Republican candidates are changing their tune about the legitimacy of the 2020 election depending on the situation. In this installment, civil and environmental engineer Daniel Cohan joins FiveThirtyEight's Sarah Frostenson, Maggie Koerth and Galen Druke to discuss why the blackouts occurred, where responsibility lies and how politics responds to these kinds of crises. Senior writer and legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discusses how the Justices approached the question and what Americans think about abortion policy. The Gabfest, featuring Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz, is the kind of informal and irreverent discussion Washington journalists have They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an undercount of Latinos. The crew discusses Congress's recent slew of legislation and whether that trend will continue with the new "Inflation Reduction Act." Labor Day traditionally marks the time when general election campaigning truly ramps up summer vacation is over, TV ads flood the airways and pollsters switch their models from registered voters to likely voters. As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. They also cover the redistricting process happening around the country after a number of big recent developments. The crew discusses what the future of the Build Back Better bill might look like in the Senate and why the provisions in the bill are more popular than the bill itself. FiveThirtyEight Politics Biden Is Set To Be The Next President 2020-11-07 The crew reacts to the news that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the projected winners of the 2020 election. Galen and Nate discuss the reasons for Republicans' improvement in the forecast. President Biden delivered his second State of the Union address on Tuesday to a newly divided Congress. Recent polls have sent some contradictory messages, but the long and short of it is that seven races are now separated by three points or less polling average. Perry Bacon Jr. speaks with Galen Druke about his recent reporting on the kinds of ideas that have gained currency on the Left and how the Right has responded. The crew discusses why the country responded to the attacks the way it did and how healthy American democracy is today. send a tweet. The data behind that evolution is striking. On Thursday, the Supreme Court wrapped up its first term with a 6-3 conservative majority on the bench. Sept. 25, 2014. negro-leagues-player- ratings. Editor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what hes learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as host of the podcast. MANAGER'S SALARY. During a punchy episode of FiveThirtyEight's now daily politics podcast on Wednesday, Silver pushed back forcefully on anyone out there accusing him or his website of getting the 2020 election. In this installment, Jennifer Merolla, a Professor of Political Science at UC Riverside, and Hannah Hartig, a research associate at Pew Research Center reflect on the political climate in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 and whether a similar American consensus is possible today. Why 10 Republicans Voted For Impeachment 300 views about 2 years ago 34:52 The crew discusses how President Bidens executive action that forgives up to $20,000 of student loan debt will impact politics and the economy. Thanks! The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Democrats Are Open To Ditching Biden In 2024. The crew discusses how a bipartisan gun control deal was reached and if this unwritten legislation could be passed by the end of the year. In this live taping of Model Talk in Washington, D.C., Nate and Galen break down the current forecasts for the Senate, House and gubernatorial races. Galen Druke talks to Nicole Hemmer about her new book, "Partisans: The Conservative Revolutionaries Who Remade American Politics in the 1990s.". Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. Posted by October 30, 2021 bangladesh police ranks on fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts October 30, 2021 bangladesh police ranks on fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts Find us at ThisDayPod.com. They also try to get to the bottom of whether Americans support the Parental Rights In Education Bill -- or what its critics call the Dont Say Gay Bill -- which Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law last week. The team assesses New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's political future after a report from the New York Attorney General concluded that he sexually harassed 11 women. It's easy. The crew discusses how Americans are feeling about COVID-19 and what types of restrictions they do and don't support after almost two years. The crew plays an Independence Day-inspired statistics game and discusses how the most recent Jan. 6 hearing could affect how Americans view former President Donald Trump. Hours before we freeze the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast tonight, it shows that Republicans are in a dead heat for the Senate and are favored to win the House. What do we know about the novel coronavirus, and what do we know we don't know? With the data from the most recent term in hand, the crew discusses how far to the right the Supreme Court has gone. 91.5 Chapel Hill 88.9 Manteo 90.9 Rocky Mount 91.1 Welcome 91.9 Fayetteville 90.5 Buxton 94.1 Lumberton 99.9 Southern Pines They also look back at 2021, try to pinpoint the most consequential political events of the year and discuss how their understanding of American politics was challenged. Why Valentina Shevchenko Is A Huge Favorite And Jon Jones Isn't At UFC 285,A pair of championships are on the line at UFC 285 in Las Vegas Saturday night, and both title bouts offer a study in contrasts. The crew discusses the various types of legislation different states may adopt if Roe v. Wade is overturned, and how those policies jibe with local public opinion. Galen Druke speaks with the director of the Harvard study, Robert Waldinger, about the lessons his findings have for politics in America. They also check in on the upcoming Virginia governors race and discuss a FiveThirtyEight report about how Congress may have inadvertently legalized THC -- the main psychoactive compound in marijuana. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. In this installment, Robert Crews, a History professor from Stanford University, joins to reflect on the history of the Taliban and the current political landscape in Afghanistan. The crew checks in on the California recall election and other upcoming races, and talks about how a Trump endorsement is shaping a Wyoming primary. No place like 'Nam. On the Conversations with Tyler podcast, produced by the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, celebrated polymath and academic economist Tyler Cowen explores the minds and methods of today's top thinkers. FiveThirtyEight Politics 199 Episodes Share Follow Episodes About 61 minutes | Feb 27, 2023 How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear To mark a year since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the factors that went into Republican Glenn Youngkin winning the Virginia governor's race. heritage commons university of utah. ( Businessweek) Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? They also ask whether the Republican Party can coalesce around an alternative to former President Donald Trump and whether President Bidens recent dismissal of the polls is a good or bad use of polling. The crew reacts to the results in Tuesdays primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans leading economic concern. We speak with the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, Patrick Murray, who wrote an article titled I blew it. The crew discusses why the Kansas amendment that would have ended state constitutional rights to abortion failed by such a wide margin. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Smialek argues that over the past century, through successive crises, the Fed has accumulated the power to choose winners and losers across American markets and society on the whole. As we discussed earlier this week, House Democrats plan on passing a one point nine trillion dollar American rescue plan by the end of the week. They also preview next week's mayoral election in Chicago and ask whether a new poll of Arizona's 2024 Senate race is actually telling us anything useful. What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? BOLIVAR The executive director of the Stark-Tuscarawas-Wayne Joint Solid Waste Management District is going to resign from the position and will then be rehired. Zach and ESPN's Michael Schwartz break down the red-hot Suns ahead of their showdown with the Warriors, then ESPN's Dave McMenamin checks in on the Lakers -- plus . A lack of those relationships can actually have an impact on political behavior and interest in extreme ideologies. No products in the cart. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. This is the first episode. We assess the state of American democracy, based on a new survey from Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists that monitors threats to our democratic systems. FiveThirtyEight Politics 295 views 25 Feb 2021 Transcribe your podcast [00:00:06] Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics podcast. With one week left until Election Day, the crew analyzes some of the high-profile races and which issues Americans care about most as they enter the voting booth. Nate and Galen answer listener questions in this installment of Model Talk. Thirty-six governors seats are up for election this fall and the crew looks at some where full control of state government might be decided by the governors race. They also analyze the court's other recent rulings on gun restrictions and school prayer and preview some of Tuesday's biggest primary elections. In this installment, the crew discusses how any potential changes could reshape the nominating process. The crew discusses how Bidens approval rating may impact the midterm election, whether tracking Google search terms over time is a better barometer than traditional polling, and how Black voters are changing the political landscape of Georgia. From host Jody Avirgan (30 for 30, FiveThirtyEight, Radiotopia) and the TED Audio Collective, Good Sport is your guide through an array of stadiums, pitches, pools and slopes that shed a light on the ups and downs of being human. Raffensperger's new book is called Integrity Counts.". As of this writing, we still dont know which party will control the House or Senate, and we may not know come the morning. The crew discusses why the number of independents has been growing and what it means for American politics. With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency. Galen and Nate discuss what to make of it in this installment of Model Talk.". They also assess how polls performed in 2019 and 2020 in general, with the benefit of hindsight and updated pollster ratings. You can get between 30 cents to $1.10 for every audio minute, which sums up to $18 - $66 per audio hour. The crew talks about the appeal of celebrity candidates and what it tells us about our politics. The crew debates why politicians break with their parties in high-profile ways and what the repercussions can be. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Then the team debates if a surge of women registering to vote in June could be linked to the Supreme Courts recent abortion decision. FiveThirtyEight contributor Laura Bronner shares what the data can tell us about the ideological direction of the court with the addition of Justice Amy Coney Barrett. How FiveThirtyEight Calculates Pollster Ratings. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. COVID-19 has pushed Americans into more uncertain territory than most have ever known. The director of the Harvard Study of Adult Development -- the longest study of human life ever conducted -- concluded in a new book that close personal relationships are the "one crucial factor [that] stands out for the consistency and power of its ties to physical health, mental health and longevity." Transcript for What if America had a lot more political parties? Galen Druke speaks with POLITICO Europe's Cornelius Hirsch and Clea Caulcutt about the dynamics at play in the French presidential election. They also assess whether narratives from the 2021 gubernatorial election in Virginia hold up in light of new data, and debate the hottest legislative topic in Washington: permanent Daylight Saving Time. New rules for the baseball season, Richard Belzer dies and more prison for Harvey Weinstein and R. Kelly | Bonus sports & entertainment episode. They also continue to track the types of candidates former President Trump has endorsed in the 2022 Republican primaries. FiveThirtyEight Politics The Gerrymandering Project: California . This is the final FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode of the Trump presidency. The crew discusses how the scandals surrounding Walker have evolved over the course of his Senate campaign and how the latest could affect the outcome of the race. The crew discusses what comes next in Democrats' attempt to pass election reforms, after their proposals hit roadblocks in the Senate. They also ask whether it's too early to conclude that the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe has had little impact on the political environment. They also debate whether the AARP is correct in assessing that women voters over the age of 50 are likely to decide the outcome of the 2022 midterms. Last week, we began to explore the most high-profile of those mayoral contests -- the New York City Democratic primary. Thee also tracks the latest voting restrictions being considered by Georgia Republicans, including a proposal to end early voting on Sundays, which is when Black churches traditionally mobilize voters through "souls to the polls" events. The crew discusses potential sticking points in the Democrats' infrastructure plan and debates whether it should be considered bipartisan if a sizable portion of Republican voters support it, but Republican lawmakers do not.